Thursday, November 18, 2010

The Myth of Texas v. California

Joel Kotkin of Forbes wrote an interesting if rather unoriginal analysis of the differences between Texas and California.  It hits all the familiar notes about pro-business v. anti-business policies and the reasons for the differences between the population and employment trends in both states.  While I agree with the pro-market assumptions behind the analysis, I must say that I think articles like these really overstate matters and serve as punching bags for intelligent liberals.
http://blogs.forbes.com/joelkotkin/2010/11/15/california-suggests-suicide-texas-asks-can-i-lend-you-a-knife/

I've said before, and I'll indubitably say it again, but I criticize allies more than ideological adversaries because in a way, those who take up 'my side' in a debate are a general reflection on the reasonableness of my own positions.  This also helps keep me from falling in with a groupthink crowd that sees every piece of evidence as proving more than it does.  I'm going to destroy Kotkin without even mentioning that the real problem in California is the absurdity of Prop 13 which gives way to much power to the morons who rule through elections.

Kotkin notes that over the last decade the population of California has fallen 1.5mil while the population of Texas has risen 800K.  We all know that California has the perfect weather, beautiful scenery, beaches, forests, mountains...but how many of those people moved because of the relatively low population density and land prices in Texas?  How many of those people moved because of a 'hostile business climate' and how many were just looking to go somewhere where income was similar and housing prices were a fraction of California's astronomical rates? 

Kotkin also points to STEM (Science and Tech jobs), Texas adding 80K since 2002 while CA has added just 17K.  Two points, first these are tiny numbers that hardly scratch the overall population trend.  Second, these numbers are completely explained by the fact that CA still possesses the highest concentrations of tech jobs of any state in the country.  (a fact mentioned in Kotkin's next paragraph).  It's hardly a surprise that a similar economy far behind in a particular job sector would gain more jobs in the sector over a given period...it would be far more surprising if CA were somehow able to increase its large advantage.

Kotkin moves on to suggest that California's focus on adding green jobs is a delusion, based on unlikely expectations that the federal government will subsidize these industries or pass 'draconian regulations.'  I expect Green Energy to be the wave of the future, and though government subsidies would probably accelerate the process (IMO-at unacceptable externality cost)...still, having a government policy of paving the way for modern energy sources is hardly a delusional strategy.

He accuses Gov elect Brown of intending to 'force' Californians into apartments rather than houses.  This is absurd on its face.  Another example of excessive hyperbole in the service of a pseudo-free market cheerleader.  It makes us all look bad.

Lastly, and most offensively, Kotkin suggests that TX is more than willing to 'hand CA the knife' to 'commit economic suicide.'  If a person does not realize that TX and every other state is economically, politically, socially, and morally invested in CA's success...then they hardly understand the vast similarities that bind two of the world's largest economies.  Even as a die-hard libertarian, I am not rooting for any American state (even liberal loony-toons) to fail.  After all, CA is still a closer ally in the war for freedom than any foreign country beyond perhaps Canada.  Rooting for CA to fail is unacceptable, and I do not believe it is the dominant opinion of people in Texas. 

If you're going to argue for my position, you're going to need intellectual rigor.  Otherwise, I'm going to despise you for giving the adversary an easy punching bag which the unsophisticated mob will associate with  my position.  Hey Kock-Kin! Quit trying to find ways to use oversimplified arguments to advocate a predetermined worldview...let the collectivists monopolize that crap!

No comments:

Post a Comment