Egypt: Conspiracy Alert!

A Chinese friend asked me what I thought about Egypt, and I told him that I was worried by the potential instability and simultaneously hopeful for a better government.  Clearly unsatisfied with my answer, he asked me what was the cause?  I said I don't know, bad economy, no jobs, everyone was unhappy.

That's when he asked me what was really on his mind...Was this started by the CIA?

That took me by surprise.  Not because I hadn't considered it, I had, and quickly dismissed the thought.  After all, the CIA was seemingly caught flat footed by the fast pace of the events on the ground and Bambi's reaction to the crisis always seemed like he was one step behind.  Also, Mubarak was on U.S. payroll and conciliatory toward Israel, so why topple him.  After the question, I paused to reconsider, and told him no.  I have spent some more time considering, and now I would like to change my answer to maybe, but hopefully not.

We all know that Bush was a vocal proponent of a so-called freedom agenda.  The post-hoc justification for the misadventure in Iraq was some sort of convoluted theory about how we would demonstrate that Arab culture was compatible with democracy and inspire other governments in the region to follow suit.  Then Hezoballah won elections in Lebanon and Hamas in the West Bank.  The freedom agenda was quietly shelved except for a few speeches by Condi Rice which seemed to indicate that the State Department still believed the idea had legs. 

Is it possible that the Obama administration, which did little to publicly support the protests in Iran last year, and has said nothing to indicate that it was continuing the once-dead Bush policy has actually been pushing a covert freedom agenda since his administration took over?  The question is intriguing if you consider the number of uprisings and protests during Bambi's administration.  There was Kyrgyzstan, Iran, Tunisia, Egypt, and now numerous copycats throughout the Muslim world.  Even Xinjiang China was hit by protests during the Obama administration.  It is far-fetched to believe that this apparent surge in Muslim unrest is quietly being instigated by intelligence forces under Obama's control?

I have no evidence (beyond the apparent frequency of these events) indicating that Bambi is playing a role in this.  Still it is an intriguing possibility, and something worth researching.  I will work more on it when I have time.

I certainly hope China does not come to the conclusion that Obama is behind these uprisings.  That would introduce a very dangerous and volatile issue into the already tense relationship between the two countries.  It is my hope that Obama is considering the complications that would arise if he is indeed playing instigator in foreign nations that are ostensibly U.S. allies, or at least mildly friendly to the U.S.  This could make many important geopolitical actors nervous, and could potentially polarize the globe as countries like Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, numerous central Asian dictators, North African dictators and others could come to the conclusion that they have a common enemy...The U.S.  That block has the potential to unite and sink the world into another Cold War. 

Scary stuff...